![]() The United States has so far given the most-$47.9 billion-to Ukraine, but nearly all of it has been given in military and humanitarian aid, while EU countries have provided the largest amount of financial assistance. If the fighting stops, but a still-dangerous frozen war is the result, private investors will remain reluctant, unless provided guarantees of security, or compensation against losses. Until the fighting ceases, any measures will simply be stopgaps-repairs to restore power supplies or guarantee water, humanitarian aid to provide temporary housing or continue medical care. How postwar reconstruction proceeds will depend on the war as well. Whether Ukraine and its Western allies will ever be able to compel Russia to pay reparations will depend on the outcome of the war. (More recent reports put the amount in the tens of billions.) It may be possible to transfer some of this to Ukraine, but the law on doing so needs to be explored, and the amounts involved would remain short of what is or will be necessary. As of June 2022, the allies had seized $30 billion in assets owned by the Russian elite and frozen $300 billion owned by the Russian central bank. Ukraine demands reparations, which seem unlikely to occur instead, Russia appears to be preparing for a longer and larger-scale conflict. In September 2022, the World Bank estimated that the cost of rebuilding Ukraine would be about $349 billion, a number that is larger than Ukraine's pre-invasion GDP and three-times greater than all the military, humanitarian, and financial assistance commitments to Ukraine since the start of the war, and is certainly much higher now. The war, the report found, has had the greatest impact on Europe's economy, where growth in 2023 is projected to be just 0.3 percent. The “shock” of the war was one of the main factors that had slowed economic growth in 2022 to just 3.1 percent, and why the OECD projected it to slow to 2.2 percent in 2023. The war in Ukraine was a “massive and historic energy shock” to the markets, according to a November 2022 report by the OECD. Slower Economic Recovery from the Pandemicīefore Russia invaded Ukraine, projections estimated global economic growth in 2022 would be around 5 percent. But the war will inevitably have broader consequences for the global economy, too. It has looked at the specific military consequences, potential escalation scenarios, and consequences for Russia, NATO, Turkey, and the Balkans. Thus far, our discussion has focused on the impact of the war on the belligerents-Russia, Ukraine-and their immediate neighbors. Part one discusses how the war could end part two deals with the potential for escalation of the war part three discusses how the war in Ukraine may affect Russia part four is about the consequences of the war on NATO, part five looks at Turkey and the Balkan states part six the global economic consequences and the series concludes with part seven. This series takes in the sweep of the war in Ukraine and its downstream effects both regionally and globally.
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